Good post. I agree with you that it’s likely we will see the global population shrink, and maybe even sooner than 2080 like that Our World in Data chart suggests. But:
- I’m not sure we will see a spiral of demographic decline, if by that you mean that population declines will beget further population declines. If I anything I think the opposite is more likely — population decline will lead to, for example, cheaper housing, which will lead to a slower rate of population declines.
- While I don’t think it’s likelier than not, I would not be surprised if economic and technological changes lead to global fertility staying around replacement levels, or even a bit above replacement, in the not too distant future: a few decades or generations from now, rather than centuries or millennia. Some of us may live to see it, if that happens.
- If that does happen - if fertility stays at even just a smidge above replacement- then thanks to the always-surprising speed of compound growth, the world population could reach extremely high numbers (at least hypothetically) in the span of only centuries, not millennia. I wrote a speculative article about that here, if you are interested: https://josephshupac.substack.com/p/fertility-rates-in-utopia
…but most importantly, I’m glad you are only using the abyss of this winter poetically. As you say, people have been going nuts over this topic.
Good post. I agree with you that it’s likely we will see the global population shrink, and maybe even sooner than 2080 like that Our World in Data chart suggests. But:
- I’m not sure we will see a spiral of demographic decline, if by that you mean that population declines will beget further population declines. If I anything I think the opposite is more likely — population decline will lead to, for example, cheaper housing, which will lead to a slower rate of population declines.
- While I don’t think it’s likelier than not, I would not be surprised if economic and technological changes lead to global fertility staying around replacement levels, or even a bit above replacement, in the not too distant future: a few decades or generations from now, rather than centuries or millennia. Some of us may live to see it, if that happens.
- If that does happen - if fertility stays at even just a smidge above replacement- then thanks to the always-surprising speed of compound growth, the world population could reach extremely high numbers (at least hypothetically) in the span of only centuries, not millennia. I wrote a speculative article about that here, if you are interested: https://josephshupac.substack.com/p/fertility-rates-in-utopia
…but most importantly, I’m glad you are only using the abyss of this winter poetically. As you say, people have been going nuts over this topic.
Thanks for the comment (and that good reference post that you wrote).